Analysis: The numbers behind the Mariners’ historic pitching dominance
Feels like this needs to be spelled out:
This isn’t normal, what the Seattle Mariners pitching staff is doing these days.
In Monday’s 2-1 victory over the Braves — punctuated by Mitch Garver’s first career walkoff homer, in as entreating a regular-season game as you’ll ever see — the Mariners’ Bryce Miller and Atlanta’s Max Fried took dueling no-hitters into the seventh inning.
Miller, the Mariners’ 25-year-old right-hander from Texas, had perhaps the best start of his young career against perhaps the best lineup he’s faced, finishing with one run allowed, two hits, one walk and 10 strikeouts.
Luis Castillo, the scheduled starter Tuesday at T-Mobile Park against the Atlanta Braves, looks to extend a run of pitching success that’s unprecedented in Mariners history.
Over the past 17 games, Mariners starters have allowed a total of 18 earned runs. Their 1.53 earned-run average since April 10 is the best over a 17-game stretch in franchise history and the best in the majors by any starting rotation since Cleveland in 2017.
Scott Servais is running out of new ways to describe just how good his pitching staff has been.
“It’s tough to do night in and night out, especially against good teams,” the Mariners manager said late Monday. “But the pitching’s been great. I can’t say [enough] about them.”
The Mariners, in a daunting stretch on their schedule, have a 5-2 record in their last seven games. That includes winning two of three games at Texas, the reigning World Series champion; two of three at home against the Diamondbacks, the reigning National League champions; and the victory Monday over Atlanta, a perennial powerhouse that owns the best record in MLB.
To put the pitching in greater perspective, the Mariners have won five of seven with an offense that has been mired in a prolonged slump, posting a .175/.232/.358 (. 590 OPS) slash line with a 35% strikeout rate over the past week.
The Diamondbacks came into the series in Seattle averaging 5.7 runs per game, most in the NL. The Mariners held them to five runs total in three games.
The Braves came into Monday leading MLB in batting average (. 277) and OPS (. 801). Miller and relievers Cody Bolton and Austin Voth held them to three hits and one run with 14 strikeouts.
Miller had 15 whiffs on his four-seam fastball Monday, the second-most among any MLB pitcher this season.
No. 1 on that list? George Kirby, who had 18 whiffs on his four-seamer Saturday night against the Diamondbacks.
“In spring training, we knew we were going to be good on the mound,” Miller said. “Everyday it’s a lot of fun to go out and watch the other guys pitch, and then whenever it’s our turn we know it’s time to go out and compete and we’re gonna do what we do and attack.”
Overall this season, Mariners pitchers rank No. 1 in MLB in:
• Quality starts (18, tied with Phillies)
• Walks per 9 innings (2.33)
• Batting average against (. 203)
• WHIP (1.03)
• Average fastball velocity (95.4 mph)
Seattle’s staff ranks No. 3 in ERA (3.03) and No. 2 in first-pitch strike percentage (65.7%). The Mariners are the only team with five starters who have thrown at least three quality starts: Logan Gilbert has five quality starts; Miller has four; and Castillo, Kirby and Emerson Hancock all have three each.